As open-source unravels the OS businesses of Microsoft and Sun, many are speculating that companies such as Adobe will quickly see their portfolios challenged by similar open-source alternatives to Photoshop...indeed Adobe recognises this and is trying to counter slow growth with low cost products such as Photoshop Elements.
Like Microsoft, Adobe and Macromedia are mired in incremental advances in their core products...advances that aren't compelling enough for expensive upgrades.
Though efforts such as Paint.NET and GIMP are currently marginal Photoshop replacements, it's simply a matter of time before the unrivalled innovation culture of the open-source movement begins to overtake the pace of innovation within companies such as Adobe.
Will Macromedia's Dreamweaver/Contribute franchise be able to keep pace with advances in Moveable Type...will Adobe's R&D labs be able to out-innovate the community of GIMP developers...we only need to examine Linux's effect on Windows...you can buy-off competitors, but you can't buy-off a movement :)
UPDATE: Looks like Adobe are warming to open-source philosophies with the launch of a Adobe Source Libraries - a number of open-source components drawn from Adobe products. Read more here...
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